Although exact numbers are debated, experts have predicted that those living along the East coast and Gulf of Mexico will experience an average of nearly 20 storms this hurricane season, including as many as 11 named hurricanes.

Scientists and meteorologists examined the conditions of six major causes of hurricanes before making projections for the upcoming hurricane season. The factors are: the presence of El Niño, sea surface temperatures, wind patterns, ocean circulation, West African rainfall and a natural weather activity cycle.

Based on current conditions, many experts agree that all of these factors are adding up to an active season. What they don’t know is how many, when, where or even if the storms will make landfall.

Forecasters Klotzbach and Gray have predicted 15 named storms and eight hurricanes—four of which they expect to be intense with winds greater than 110 mph. AccuWeather sees 16 to 18 storms and two or three major hurricanes hitting the U.S. coastline.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or NOAA will issue its outlook on May 20, about a week and a half before the start of hurricane season.

As for landfall, Garry Bell, lead hurricane forecaster for NOAA, said it is mostly determined by the atmosphere’s condition when the storms are swirling. Chances of landfall increase dramatically based on the activity of the season.

So far, Klotzbach and Gray predict a 69 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the coastline, and AccuWeather projects that seven storms, including five hurricanes, will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline.

Critics say it is still too early to make predictions, especially when there is still a month left for the six key conditions to change. However, that doesn’t mean Americans should wait in preparing their homes for an active season, especially when all predictions point to a potentially dangerous season.

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